Question regarding the math of a flop call

[kevinhav11]

I am mostly a NL player trying to learn to play limit so this may seem like a noobish question but here we go...
This is more of a general question than a specific hand question but this hand is a great example. I was wondering if calling a flop bet with this speculative of a hand is profitable. i think it is but Im not sure, heres my reasoning

PF- Assuming that it is profitable to limp with middle pairs in SSHE lets skip the preflop action i think its boring.

Flop - The bot is 10sb with the button and SB i am getting 12-1 to hit my set 2/47 or 1/23.5 on the turn alone.(hero is folding on a 7.5-1 pot odds bet on the turn if he misses his 7) Considering that I have the 7d it simplifies things for me, if I hit a 7 my hand is best. When you factor in implied pot odds we are getting the right price here right?

Can anyone give me a definative mathematically based answer, at what point is the pot is too small on the flop to call one small bet? What pot odds to I need to be give to call with a middle pair only hoping to hit a 2 outter.

PokerStars 0.10/0.20 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. UTG posts a blind of $0.10.
UTG (poster) checks, Hero calls, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG folds, Hero calls, CO calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, SB calls, Hero calls, CO folds.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, SB folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 7.50 BB

[Johnny McEldoo]

You already have the math part right. Nothing is definative about estimating implied pot odds so there isn't an absolute answer to your question. This is going to be very dependant on the tendencies of the players invloved in the hand, what cards the villian has, etc.

In the case where you are drawing to two outs for a turn card. Basically you need the pot to get about 24 small bets for your one small bet investment to break even in the long run and right now it's 10.


let's take it from the turn assuming you hit your 7. the most likely scenario i think would be:

turn = 7
hero checks, button bets, hero raises, button calls (you got 4 small bets here to add to your 10)

river = x
hero bets, button calls (2 more small bets gained)

so you got 16 small bets total when you needed 25 to justify a call. villian would have to be awfully agressive here in order for this pot to get the size you need (if he caps on both turn and river he is putting in a total of 16 more small bets which is barely enough). even if he has two pair, i'm not sure he is going to give you a pot large enough.


You also have to consider the fact that if he does give you enough action, he probably has some a few outs himself on the river. I think you would most likely have to put him on 2 pair, straight draw, flush draw, etc which gives him 4-8 outs on the river even if you hit the turn.

[Lucky_River]

so you don't get the odds you need for this call. But if the SB stays in you may get 4 SB more on Turn and River.
Than you may get 20 S.B. total (I think you need 22 SB not 25) than it's closer, but you have another problem.
One of them may hold JQ or 2xd you may hit your 7 on the Turn and lose on the River.

[sharpie]

I wouldn't peel the flop here. I don't think you're getting the right price including implied when you're not closing the action. An argument I can see for peeling is if you think your hand is best and will hold up some portion of the time, not sure how much this is worth but probably not much, it's rare that you're ahead and will stay ahead on this board, and you might get bluffed out etc.

Raise PF.

[mvoss]

Preflop is an easy raise.

The flop is a fold imo. You don't have immediate odds, you don't have the implied odds you need and you're not closing the action

[TheWunderkind]

uhm Turn + River are BBs so you might hav ethe correct odds but its also an reverse implied odds Situation, the FLop is an easy fold and preflop is an easy raise, its really important here to raise preflop

[Oink]

[ QUOTE ]
its really important here to raise preflop

[/ QUOTE ]

[mvoss]

[ QUOTE ]
uhm Turn + River are BBs so you might hav ethe correct odds but its also an reverse implied odds Situation, the FLop is an easy fold and preflop is an easy raise, its really important here to raise preflop

[/ QUOTE ]

Please explain how this is a reverse implied odds situation?

You're getting 12-1 on the flop call and you need 22.5-1 to call, if you think you have odds to call here you are seriously overestimating your implied odds.

[TheWunderkind]

Villain can easyily have KK / TT or a higher overpair i wich case he can hit a higher set on the River if you spike a 7, isnt this considered a reverse implied Situation?

Where did i said youve the odds? I said you might have the odds, you need 6BBs going in from your opponents to make the FLop call ok, thats is not impossible.

[mvoss]

A RIO situation requires you to win a small pot when you win but lose a big pot when you lose, that is not the case here. If you hit a set here your equity is very good vs. villains range. However you won't win 6 BB's on the big streets on average when you hit your set imo.