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Old 04-30-2007, 12:18 AM
Scorpion Man Scorpion Man is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Bay Area, CA
Posts: 615
Default Re: First good idea

[ QUOTE ]
What percentage of your investments is going to go into this stock?

Is Q1 just historically a bad quarter for this company? If not, why are you confident that this bad quarter isn't going to negatively affect the company, is it a short-term trade off for long term profit kind of thing?

[/ QUOTE ]

I am considering around 10% of the $s I control for this investment....that is large for me, as I run with about 30 stocks (which is too many, but that is a different discussion).

Q1 is seasonally weak, but it is bad even taking out that effect. There are some specific macro reason that the Q is poor...but we believe there are specific, controllable opportunities for the company to create value - both in operations and in the capital structure.

It is a fairly steady business with macro exposure to public works, commercial and industrial capital spending. I am not 100% sure what you are asking, but its not really a tradeoff, just a bad Q for some idiosyncratic reasons that do not seem to be relevant to a two year view of the company's future (or even a 6 month view).
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