Stacking off with 2nd or 3rd nuts to massive overbet

[Panthro]

Here's another one to add to the discussion -- I folded like a vagina, but maybe I was wrong/nitty/retarted in doing so. Converted it from memory...

<font color="black">SB: $100</font>
<u>Hero (BB): $100</u>
UTG: $100
<u>CO: $100</u>
BTN: $100

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 Players)
UTG folds, CO calls, BTN folds, SB calls, Hero checks

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($3) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, Hero checks, CO checks

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($3) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, Hero checks, CO checks

<font color="black">River:</font> ($3) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3, CO shoves

[members_only]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is more the type of hand OP has in mind :

No Limit Hold'em Ring Game (6 max) , 4 players
Blinds : $1/$2

Stacks:
UTG : $197
Button : $208.30 (Hero)
SB : $552.55
BB : $211.80

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $8</font>, SB calls, BB folds.

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($18, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $4</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $22</font>, SB calls ($18).

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($62, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

River: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($62, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $500</font>, Hero ???

[/ QUOTE ]

is anyone really folding this against an unknown/average SSNL player? the way he's played it doesn't seem like a house to me (i'd guess a lower flush.) 44%+ of the time anyway

[MasterLJ]

That's a great example panthro.

$96 to call to win a $102 pot. We have to be right 49% of the time.

Can it ever be profitable to call?

[tannenj]

am i misreading that hand? how big a part of his range can AQ be, he openlimped pre from the co.

if he's playing AQ like that pre, he's too stupid for me to give him credit on the river.

[members_only]

[ QUOTE ]
Here's another one to add to the discussion -- I folded like a vagina, but maybe I was wrong/nitty/retarted in doing so. Converted it from memory...

<font color="black">SB: $100</font>
<u>Hero (BB): $100</u>
UTG: $100
<u>CO: $100</u>
BTN: $100

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 Players)
UTG folds, CO calls, BTN folds, SB calls, Hero checks

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($3) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, Hero checks, CO checks

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($3) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, Hero checks, CO checks

<font color="black">River:</font> ($3) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3, CO shoves

[/ QUOTE ]

would he open limp from the cutoff with AQ?

[John49]

[ QUOTE ]
I know the mods frown on "general" posts, but this has been bugging me a lot.

Scenario:

You have the 2nd or 3rd nuts, or the nut flush on a paired board, you have little money invested (let's say 3-5BB for sake of discussion) and your opponent open pushes or check-raises AI for 80-100BB.

Is it profitable to call?'

It could be just from running bad, but I rarely rarely ever see a worse hand here.

I'd like to see what you all think and hopefully have some meaningful discussion.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course this matters. To me, it's an easier call earlier the street.

[bilbo-san]

[ QUOTE ]
Here's another one to add to the discussion -- I folded like a vagina, but maybe I was wrong/nitty/retarted in doing so. Converted it from memory...

<font color="black">SB: $100</font>
<u>Hero (BB): $100</u>
UTG: $100
<u>CO: $100</u>
BTN: $100

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 Players)
UTG folds, CO calls, BTN folds, SB calls, Hero checks

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($3) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, Hero checks, CO checks

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($3) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, Hero checks, CO checks

<font color="black">River:</font> ($3) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3, CO shoves

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless CO is super passive preflop, I snap call this. AQ isn't in his range, and you beat 97, which is, along with a whole slew of 2-pair hands that CO does not realize that he's bluffing with.

[2Paul2]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
On the river in limped pots I think you see the nuts just about evry time assuming villain isnt brain dead(and even then you still see the nuts plenty).

After that I think it's quite situation/opponent dependent.

Paul

[/ QUOTE ]

Care to elaborate. Specifically, what situations are you putting down a monster hand (2nd or 3rd nuts). Stack sizes, opponent read, amount invested?

I suppose, what is the situation that is right on the fence of where you'd call and where you'd fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well of the ones posted I would call vry quickly and happily A5dd and fold pretty quickly and happily AQdd.

The Q9ss is a bit more interesting. If villain is passive pre I'd fold. If he's at all aggro pre I'd call. V an unknown would be an example of a I'm not sure what to do spot. Most likely I would fold though. Ime regardless of how you get there when someone shoves there stack in to an essentially dry pot they have the nuts. When I say I'd call v someone w/ any sort of pf aggression I'd still exepct to lose to a pf misclick or something a decent amount of the time.

Paul

[Roadstar]

Haha bad example on my part but I think you know what I'm trying to get at.

Yes I call an overbet on flop from a SB overshove because 1) sometimes players get frisky, 2) draws on the board, 3) you have outs if you're wrong.

Also, why river overshoves are dangerous is because some villains go ok let me read the board, ok I have the nuts, I must push. In other words, they want to make sure all cards are out and they can't lose before commiting their whole stack (wrongly of course) and you're drawing dead if you're wrong.