$10NL - AK in mid position

[obloni]

Yea I was thinking that I would have to push if an A or K fell on the flop.

I don't think he would have 3bet with 10-10; so that leaves JJ, QQ, KK, AA and AK that he would have 3bet with.

30% of the time an A or K would drop;
and when I push, he'll fold if he has JJ/QQ and KK too if the board is an A.
So really, my push on the flop is -EV since he won't call with a hand that loses to mine.

1/6 of the time A will drop, and he will only call with AA and AK so 1/6 * 1/5 * $9.00 = -$0.30
if he folds, then I win 1/6 * 3/5 * $5.00 = +$0.5

1/6 of the time K will drop, and he will call with AA,AK,KK
he calls, 1/6 * 2/5 * $9.00 = -$0.60
he folds, 1/6 * 2/5 * $5.00 = +$0.35

the other 2/3 of the time I flop nothing,
2/3 * $1.50 = -$1.00

Sum them up, the EV is -$1.05;
If i folded preflop though it would have only cost me -$0.60.
Of course, these calculations are inaccurate since even if I was losing I could hit runner-runner and things like that to win; and also the fact that he might find his JJ/QQ/KK hard to let go and call my push.


As played I folded preflop, thinking it would be a hard spot for me to play my AK.