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Old 01-25-2007, 09:57 PM
trickyAAA trickyAAA is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: NJ
Posts: 190
Default Re: Big pot Interesting spot with AA

I think this is a call. Here is my analysis - please let me know if anyone finds a mistake:

assumptions:
7 cards left that make two pair for the hero (of a possible 9 - assumes two are dead)
2 cards left that make trips for the hero
39 cards left in the deck

Range of hands for villian
hand % outs %wins
8989 25% 9/39 5.7%
8898 20% 2/39 1.0%
AA98 10% 6/39* 1.5%
TJ98 25% 31/39* 19.8%
9998 20% 2/39 1.0%

This makes the hero 30% to win the hand, the pot is 600 and the bet is 60.

Regarding the asterix next to two of the outs estimates:
For the hand where the villian has aces, there are 9 cards that make two pair or better, but I discounted this to 6 in case the villian makes aces up. For the hand where the villian has a straight draw, 31/39 represents the number of draws for the villian that do not make his straight.

I made a lot of assumptions here, and estimated the chances that the villian had each hand. Please comment.
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