#2
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Big pot Interesting spot with AA
I think this is a call. Here is my analysis - please let me know if anyone finds a mistake:
assumptions: 7 cards left that make two pair for the hero (of a possible 9 - assumes two are dead) 2 cards left that make trips for the hero 39 cards left in the deck Range of hands for villian hand % outs %wins 8989 25% 9/39 5.7% 8898 20% 2/39 1.0% AA98 10% 6/39* 1.5% TJ98 25% 31/39* 19.8% 9998 20% 2/39 1.0% This makes the hero 30% to win the hand, the pot is 600 and the bet is 60. Regarding the asterix next to two of the outs estimates: For the hand where the villian has aces, there are 9 cards that make two pair or better, but I discounted this to 6 in case the villian makes aces up. For the hand where the villian has a straight draw, 31/39 represents the number of draws for the villian that do not make his straight. I made a lot of assumptions here, and estimated the chances that the villian had each hand. Please comment. |
Thread Tools | |
Display Modes | |
|
|