Midterm elections prediction thread

[Jeff Oneye]

I agree with the point regarding the validity of polling. Yes, they overrepresent certain types of people and underrepresent others. As previously noted, certain people tend to be home at the time pollsters call. Furthermore, certain types of people will hang up the phone on the pollster. And then we have the proliferation of cell phones. Also, some voters who say they will vote will stay home if they are inconvenienced by bad weather. For these reasons and a litany of others, there is reason to be cautious when interpreting poll results.

I remember back in 2000 when most of the pollsters (Zogby being a notable exception, who called it dead on) had Bush winning by about three or four percentage points. Then in the last election cycle it appeared the Republicans wouldn't fare as well as they did. So the pollsters usually don't get it quite right. They do a good job at identifying runaway winners but are practically useless in close races.

There does seem to be a 'built in advantage' favoring Republicans. Thus, it probably makes sense to add a percentage point or two to the Republican candidate. Republicans tend to be more motivated to vote then Democrats. Their partisan identification is stronger and they rarely defect.

I would speculate this advantage might not be as pronounced in the upcoming election. The Republicans have alienated their base with unyielding support for an unpopular war and an unwillingness to curtail growth in government. Blaming Democrats doesn't work as well when the Republicans control the House, Senate and the Presidency.

The recent blunder by John Kerry might have some negative impact, reinforcing the perception of Democrats as elitist and anti-military. However, it might also redirect attention to the war in Iraq. And previous Republican scandals (notably Foley) will help mitigate its impact.

My basic impression is that there is a general sense of dissatisfaction with the Iraq War, even amongst my Republican friends and colleagues. They gave Bush and Congress a pass during the last election cycle. However, the rhetoric hasn't matched the reality. This might have the effect of putting Democrats on more of a level playing field by eroding Republican partisan zeal. However, I don't think that means mass defections or droves of cynical republicans staying home. The incumbents will still have their inherent advantage as well. My prediction is that the Republicans will lose about ten seats in the House and a couple in the Senate.

Jeffrey