#1
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10 BBs, 99 in EP, Shorter stack A/I in front...easy push?
UTG+1 had been playing pretty tight on the short stack. I've only been at this table for about 2 orbits. Table average was VP$P = 19% PFR = 10%, so it was a somewhat tight/aggressive table.
I figured I was ahead of UTG+1's range, but much do I need to be ahead to compensate for the times someone behind me picks up a hand? I figure they are calling behind me with (QQ+,AK). Party $11 Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums) UTG (t25430) UTG+1 (t3200) Hero (t5982) MP1 (t5045) MP2 (t8586) MP3 (t12924) CO (t5322) Button (t19358) SB (t11523) BB (t12119) Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 goes All In[t3200] , Hero... (pot = t4100) |
#2
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Re: 10 BBs, 99 in EP, Shorter stack A/I in front...easy push?
Okay, now that I re-read this, it seems like a math problem. I've done some analysis.
If I push, I get an overcaller about 18.2% of the time with the range of QQ+,AK (2.6% x 7 players left to act). I put UTG+1 on the range of 22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,A2o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo (is this too wide)? So, 81.8% of the time I get no overcalls. Against UTG+1's range I have 59.7% equity in a total pot of 7300 which is t4360. Compared to my risk of 3100, I gain t1260. I am going to assume if I get called, there is only 1 caller (18.2%). Against UTG+1's range and the over-pusher's range (AK,QQ+) I have 29.72% equity in a pot of t13064, which equals 3882 total equity. Subtracting the amount risked, this results in a loss of t2100. So, -t2100 x .182 = -t382.2 and t1260 x .818 = +t1031 Adding the two together, the move has an expectation of t649. I would appreciate it someone could check my numbers to see if this is correct. Thanks. Sherm |
#3
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Re: 10 BBs, 99 in EP, Shorter stack A/I in front...easy push?
I think I may fold and wait for a better spot. You still have 10 big blinds and I think I'd rather be the one pushing than the one calling. I think the times someone picks up a hand behind you makes this not a good push. Based on your range of people calling behind, they will call about 20% of the time. I'm not sure how to work out the math involving the side pot. If UTG+1 wins the main pot and you win the side pot etc..
If someone could work out the math here that would be nice. EDIT: I just saw your math. What about the side pot? If UTG+1 wins the main pot and you win the side pot does that affect things? What does the math work out to if you put UTG+1 on a narrower range? |
#4
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Re: 10 BBs, 99 in EP, Shorter stack A/I in front...easy push?
easy push.
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#5
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Re: 10 BBs, 99 in EP, Shorter stack A/I in front...easy push?
[ QUOTE ]
If I push, I get an overcaller about 18.2% of the time with the range of QQ+,AK (2.6% x 7 players left to act). [/ QUOTE ] Could you explain this? I was approaching it from the probability of specifically an overpair to your 9's w/ x opponents. This short, I would not think you are overly concerned w/ overs putting money in the pot as a slight dog and possibly hemming up some collective outs against you. I found this http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showth...rue#Post7371721 but I am a retard w/ math beyond the basics and did not know the function of "^". Any help would be appreciated. Oh, I push. |
#6
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Re: 10 BBs, 99 in EP, Shorter stack A/I in front...easy push?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If I push, I get an overcaller about 18.2% of the time with the range of QQ+,AK (2.6% x 7 players left to act). [/ QUOTE ] Could you explain this? I was approaching it from the probability of specifically an overpair to your 9's w/ x opponents. This short, I would not think you are overly concerned w/ overs putting money in the pot as a slight dog and possibly hemming up some collective outs against you. I found this http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showth...rue#Post7371721 but I am a retard w/ math beyond the basics and did not know the function of "^". Any help would be appreciated. Oh, I push. [/ QUOTE ] In this equation P(higher pair) =~ 1 - (1 - 6*P/1225)^N ^ is just indicating a superscript i.e. to the N power. like 5x5x5 can be written 5^3 |
#7
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Re: 10 BBs, 99 in EP, Shorter stack A/I in front...easy push?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If I push, I get an overcaller about 18.2% of the time with the range of QQ+,AK (2.6% x 7 players left to act). [/ QUOTE ] Could you explain this? I was approaching it from the probability of specifically an overpair to your 9's w/ x opponents. This short, I would not think you are overly concerned w/ overs putting money in the pot as a slight dog and possibly hemming up some collective outs against you. I found this http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showth...rue#Post7371721 but I am a retard w/ math beyond the basics and did not know the function of "^". Any help would be appreciated. Oh, I push. [/ QUOTE ] I did the equation this way. There is a 2.6% chance of someone being dealt AA,KK,QQ, or AK. I found this by highlighting these 4 hands in pokerstove. I then multiplied this number by the number of players left to act behind me (7). 7x2.6 = 18.2%. |
#8
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Re: 10 BBs, 99 in EP, Shorter stack A/I in front...easy push?
To find the probabibility of at least one caller, you calculate the probability everyone folds and subtract from one so in this case, 1-.975^7=16.2%.
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#9
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Re: 10 BBs, 99 in EP, Shorter stack A/I in front...easy push?
[ QUOTE ]
To find the probabibility of at least one caller, you calculate the probability everyone folds and subtract from one so in this case, 1-.975^7=16.2%. [/ QUOTE ] Is it this number to the power of 7? I thought it was multiplied by 7? |
#10
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Re: 10 BBs, 99 in EP, Shorter stack A/I in front...easy push?
To the power of 7 since each player is independently folding 97.5% of the time.
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