Of Climate Models and Hurricane Predictions

[Phil153]

The hurricane thing is dumb. Just because I can't predict whether it'll rain over your house next Tuesday doesn't mean I can't predict the effects of increasing water vapor concentration on Mars. Some things are physically well understood, others are not.

And the hurricane models are probability models and their failure doesn't even reach statistical significance by the looks of it. Hurricanes are highly chaotic systems whose formation can never be more than a probability model, whereas the CO2-heat retention link is very simple and well observed physics.

I have a question for Wacki though. Since we all gamble...what odds would you give me on temperatures increasing by at least 2 degrees within 50 years?