Razz .50/1 - betting 6th and 7th

[Sp00n]

My instinct is to bet, but in this situation it is very easy to calculate to correct play.

Calculating villains range:

Worst case A3J962x:
Outs: 444555777(Total 9)

Best case 38J962x
Outs: A444555(Total 7)

As a rough guess we think villain has 8 outs here, there are 37 cards remaining in the deck. This means villain will improve to a hand that beats ours 21.6% of the time, the remaining times we win.
If villain raises our 7th street bet when he improves to a 7 or better and we call every time we stand to lose 2 bets 21.6% of the time
If villain calls our 7th street bet unimproved every time, we can expect to win 1 bet 78.4%.

So our EV if we bet is 1*0.784 - 2*0.216 = 0.352BB
This does not include villains bluff raising frequency or our frequency for folding to villains raise.

It is more difficult to calculate our EV if we c/c because we need to know bluffing frequencies.

Any questions let me know.