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Optimum bluffing frequency question
Alright, it's been a while since I've really read through Theory of Poker, but maybe someone could clear this up for me. I'm interested in tweaking my game so as to bluff optimally. This results in a situation where we don't care if he calls or folds - we win long run either way.
Let's just take a scenario. I raise KJss on the button and get 3b by a TAG BB. I call. (pot: 6.5 sb) flop is 235r and he continues, I call. (pot 8.5 sb) I'm assuming he's going to lead any turn, making the pot 5.25 BB. If I raise, he is getting 7.25:1 on the call, so my bluffing frequency should be 1:7.25, or 12.1%, which equates to about 5 cards in the deck (47*.121). I am going to choose any 8 and the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I chose these over cards like As, Qs, and Ts, because those make up more of his 3b'ing range. So the optimum way to play this turn is to raise any K, J, and any of my 5 randomly chosen cards. amirite? Another thought: If you're going to commit to bluffing the turn AND the river, how should this affect our numbers? Should we change our turn bluff frequency to be 9.25:1 (9.8%)? |
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