How far will bonds go?

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Barron,

I'm referring to the official definition, something of which we wouldn't know for sure until a couple of years down the road (as you know). I was considering creating a post as to why I think the odds of a recession at this point are 95% (I said within the next two quarters for theatrics to be honest, but I do still believe there'sd a 50% chance of one hitting that soon).

I find it hard to believe how any rational person at this point cannot see the odds of a recession occurring over the next 12 months as being at least 50%. I'm basing my opinion on an extensive amount of research and would be willing to argue with anyone who believes the other side of the argument to be true.

Edit: As for a wager, something small and friendly would be fine (I'll make a shorter-term bet such as the Dow losing at least 20% of its value over the next 12 months). I'm currently making a big bet through my investments, so anything big would be risky.