Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo

[Briman51]

I think the river here is really interesting. Assume you're bluff will be about 1/2 pot size.

I think his range is about 10% hands with tens: ATs,TT,JTo,JTs etc.

Without any information it's really hard to guess how often he'll fold his nothing here, but I'd say not many people lay down here maybe 10%.

So you lose 10% of the time, you split 72% of the time (0.9*0.8=0.72), and you win 10% of the time.

Therefore, you're expectation from the bet should be:

0.1*95+0.5*95*0.72-0.1*47.5 = $38.95

You're expectation when not betting is:

0.9*47.5=$42.75

So the Expexctation is the marginal(ish) using these figures. I thought this was quite interesting analysis. Picking the figures more logically would be useful. Any thoughts?