How does a tighter payout structure affect variance and winrate?

[albinoskunk]

Suppose you're beating ten-handed games with 50/30/20 payouts at 15%, and we'll assume you are the only player who has any grasp of how drastically play changes on the bubble. If the ten-handed game began paying out only two places 75/25, would this increase or decrease your winrate? Do you think your variance would increase dramatically, or, if your edge increases, would it stay roughly the same?