Full Tilt 6max .25-.50 best river line

[kross]

I agree that small PPs are a big part of his range, and now I'm thinking maybe a bet here might be better. We need to be good at least 50% of the time when we're called for a bet to be profitable. Here's a quick stove with hands that he might have that he would probably call a river bet with (or check/raise):

Board: Jd 4d 9s 5h 9h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.583% 61.59% 00.00% 4566006 0.00 { TcTs }
Hand 1: 38.417% 38.42% 00.00% 2848482 0.00 { 88-22, A2s+, KJs, K9s, QJs, Q9s, J7s+, T9s, 96s+, 75s, 65s, 53s+, A2o+, KJo, K9o, QJo, Q9o, J8o+, T9o, 96o+, 65o }

I don't know how realistic that range is, but it appears we have enough equity to bet.

The problem is, sometimes he has a 9 and will c/r the river. He will also sometimes bluff c/r the river. Although most opponents at microstakes will donk as a bluff on the river in this spot. I hate having to make that decision, whether his c/r is a bluff or not, and just check behind.