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Simple fold eq hand
I find that I too rarely get down to analyzing the math behind fold eq situations, so please correct any mistakes I've made here.
Party Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter UTG: $216 MP: $237.10 CO: $66.20 Hero (BTN): $243.70 SB: $196 BB: $219.65 CO posts $2 Pre-Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN) UTG folds, MP calls $2, CO checks, <font color="red">Hero raises to $11</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $38</font>, 3 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $243.70 and is All-In</font> CO poster is obv. horrible and doesn't have a hand, UTG+1 is loose/terrible. My stats/notes/reads on SB says he's 19/14 and he 3-bets too much preflop. I'd been playing 30/20 at the table, so if he's paying any kind of attention to stats/the table he knows I'm raising anything playable here. Now, I think he needs JJ+/AK to call this, against this my hand is 33% and there's roughly $50 in the pot, so: EV when called = .33 * 400 - 200 = -68 EV when he folds = 50 0 = X * -68 + (1-X) * 50 = -68X + 50 -50X = -118X + 50 <=> 118X = 50 <=> X = .42 He needs to fold 42% of the time to make this play profitable, right? Corrections to math and comments on the play are welcome. Hope this doesn't turn out to be one of the bad posts I berated in the (nc) thread [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] EDIT: Just gotten corrected, more precisely: EV when called is .33 * 398 - 185 = -52 EV when he folds is 55 X = probability he folds 0 = X*55 + (1-X)* -52 = 55X -52 + 52X <=> 52 = 107X <=> X~= .49. So he needs to fold around 50% of the time. |
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