#1
|
|||
|
|||
How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?
Hello,
after strings of 1-2000 games going up in ROI, I always experience a period really hard to deal with. Time ago I wrote a program, that I called 'luckometer' to just check difference from won chips and EV in preflop allins 1v1. I found that in the long run difference should tend to 0. However, at a certain point , bad luck seem unstoppable. I give an example with some numbers (from today).. 143 25$+2$ sit & go played I was 352 times allin preflop (1v1 showdown). I was 51.42% on edge vs my opponent's hand. My expected value was 600,087 chips. I extracted from pots just 483,088 chips. Difference is 24.22% negative, 116,999 chips were lost in bad luck.. I wrote a simulator too that repeat the games flip and, playing 352 allins 200 times it never had a so negative result. Is there anyone with a good math/statistic background that can help me to calculate what's the % I have to run so bad with a given number of flips ? Meanwhile I will simulate a long run with the simulator to see how many times 'this may happen' in an empiric way Thanks SJ |
|
|