10NL - 33 flops set, but tricky spot

[Surf]

Hey Akak,

pf + flop are fine. On the turn the pot is $2.20 ($3.20 when we bet) and villain has $6.25 left. Either we expect villain to pay off with a wide enough range that we want to get him allin, in which case we need to pot the turn and "shove" river for his remaining ~$4, or we want to pot control the turn and ck behind to make sure we don't double him up when he has a straight.

It's difficult to know when to change one's expectations for the hand. On the flop we're 100% steaming ahead in "Lets stack him!" mode, but once the turn hits we probably only want one more modest bet to go in against most players. His min-cr looks very much like a straight, the classic bad-player pot-build move.

My one concern would be that because you bet so small on the turn he does not put you on a straight, and is melting down with some bizarre 1pr/2pr hand. Checking the turn saves us f rom this spot, because we can call a river bet/bluff confidently b/c the pot is still only $2.20.

The best part about checking behind the turn is that you will still stack him the times you fill up and he has a straight, since he will not put you on a set. He'll value-bet the river and you can raise him allin and he will crying call.

Surf