50NL equity of push calculation

[Panic__NL]

Ok I am trying to make an EV calculation on this hand and I want to see if I am doing it right.

Villian is 25/11/2.5 over a decent sample.
I am fairly active running 27/22/4


iPoker No-Limit Texas Hold'em (NL50), $0.50 BB (4 handed) SilverKitty Hand History converter by www.pokeronline.com.ua

Hero ($71.3)
BB ($53.3)
CO ($79.13)
Button ($47.5)

Hero: Post SB $0.25
BB: Post BB $0.50

Preflop:
Hero is SB with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="#666666">1 folds</font>
Button Call $0.5
Hero Raise $2.25
BB Raise $5
<font color="#666666">1 folds</font>
Hero Call $3

Flop:($11.5) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]<font color="#0030DD">(2 players)</font>
Hero Check
BB Bet $6.5
Hero Raise $28.5
BB Allin $41.3
Hero Call $19.3

First of all by reraising on the flop I commit my self so we will see it as a shove. I dont shove cause it looks fishy and I hope to get more fold equity with a reraise.

Preflop: Villians 3 bet range, considering my image, is about JJ+ AQs+ AK.

Flop: I flop an OESD and villian cbets, probably with his whole range. I reraise and now I want to know how often villian will have to fold to make this EV+.

Suppose he will not fold all his big pairs, so JJ+.
He will not fold AsKs and AsQs.
Against that range this is what pokerstove says:



Pokerstove

Board: Jh 9s 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: <font color="red"> 34.949% </font> 34.45% 00.50% 7844 114.00 { TdTs }
Hand 1: <font color="red"> 65.051% </font> 64.55% 00.50% 14698 114.00 { JJ+, AsKs, AsQs }




So if he calls I am an 35% underdog.
The moment I reraise/push the pot is 18$, so if he folds I win 18$ immediately.
If he calls I lose 65% of the time and win 35% of the time.


Equity of pushing

Villian folds:
= 17 <font color="blue"># in the pot after his cbet </font>
Villian calls:
65% * (-41) = -27 <font color="blue"># I have to shove $41 more over his cbet </font>
35% * (17+41)= 20 <font color="blue"># I will win his call + what was already in the pot</font>
= -7 <font color="blue"># total EV if he calls</font>

Villian folds 100x% of the time then
EV(push) = 17*x+ -7(1-x)
24*x + -7 = 0
x = 0.29


x is the percentage he has to fold to make this push EV neutral.



So if Villian folds <font color="red">29% </font>of the time or more I will make moneyz.

combos

As I said he will not fold all his pairs and all his nutflushdraws.
His 3bet range preflop consists of 36 combinations:
JJ-AA = 16 combos
AKs AQs = 8 combos
AK0 = 12 combos

18 of them he will fold, 18 he will call, so he will fold 50% of the time.
<font color="red">50% &gt;&gt; 29%</font>

But even if he decides to call with AKo, I am still good, cause my equity will rise, so he has to fold less.

Am I correct?