#11
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Re: NFL Parlays Huge Spreads and O/Us 4-0 this weekend
This is the outcome of blindly betting this in the NFL since 1990 based on the repole numbers. The criterion was where spread >= (1/4)(total). This only counts weeks 1-9 of 2007 and the regular season only for all other years. The 3 numbers are wins-losses-halfwins. A half win is where you win half of the parlay and tie the other half.
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>Season Over/Fav Under/Dog 2007 6-7-0 2-10-1 2006 10-27-1 9-28-1 2005 5-19-0 8-16-0 2004 3-13-1 4-13-0 2003 4-15-0 6-13-0 2002 6-16-0 4-18-0 2001 5-16-0 2-17-2 2000 8-20-1 6-22-1 1999 6-20-0 8-17-1 1998 8-18-0 4-22-0 1997 3-17-1 4-16-1 1996 6-16-1 4-19-0 1995 4-21-0 9-16-0 1994 9-15-0 9-15-0 1993 12-31-0 15-28-0 1992 8-44-1 15-38-0 1991 8-23-0 7-24-0 1990 3-20-1 7-17-0 TOTAL 114-358-7 123-349-7 </pre><hr /> Here are the games this year that qualified (weeks 1-9). 2007 Weeks 1-9: Week 2: Buf(3) +10 @ Pit(26) o/u39 [loss] Week 2: NJY(13) +10 @ Bal(20) o/u 33 [half] Week 2: Oak(20) +10 @ Den(23) o/u 37 [win] Week 2: KC(10) +12 @ Chi(20) o/u 34.5 [win] Week 3: SF(16) +9.5 @ Pit(37) o/u 38 [win] Week 3: Buf(7) +16.5 @ NE(38) o/u 41 [win] Week 4: Stl(7) +13 @ Dal(35) o/u 47 [loss] Week 4: KC(30) +12 @ Sdg(16) o/u 38.5 [loss] Week 5: Cle(17) +15.5 @ NE(34) o/u 48 [win] Week 6: Stl(3) +9 @ Bal(22) o/u 36.5 [loss] Week 7: NE(49) -15.5 @ Mia(28) o/u 49.5 [win] Week 8: Was(7) +14.5 @ NE(52) o/u 46.5 [win] Week 9: Bal(7) +9.5 @ Pit(38) o/u 36 [win] With standard payouts of +2.6 for a win, -1 for a loss and +0.91 for a half win, it looks like blindly doing this for the NFL is -EV. This year with the New England anomaly it appears to be doing well. Edit: I was improperly counting half wins where the spread was tied. If under/dog tied, I was not counting this as a loss for over/win. |
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