Calculating LSU's Odds to win National Title

[iggymcfly]

I think you're underestimating the fluidity of the polls. Last week, West Virginia was 30 points ahead of Missouri in the Harris poll and 44 points ahead in the Coaches' poll. West Virginia had their best win of the season, beating Cincinnatti on the road (#14 Sagarin) while Missouri beat a pretty pedestrian KSU team (#45 Sagarin). Yet this week Missouri's dead even in the Harris poll and only 17 points back in the Coaches' poll.

While part of this was due to the teams that lost, (with some voters already having WVU ahead of OU and UO and less having Missouri there), I think a lot of it is just due to the buzz that Missouri picked up with everyone talking about their showdown with Kansas this week. If ASU beats USC badly enough to get Herbstreit, Fowler et al backing them, a ton of voters would move them up past West Virginia. They're already dead-even in the computer rankings so it wouldn't take all that much in the polls for them to move up.

Also, I think the computers would give ASU a bigger boost than you're counting on. What the Sun Devils have going for them is that they have a very forgivable loss (at Oregon, #9 in the computers). However, they don't have much of a big win anywhere on the schedule. Thus, just getting one big win over USC will be a big boost for them. Meanwhile, West Virginia already has a bigger win (at Cincy) then they can get this week (home vs. UConn). Therefore, this win won't have as big of an impact for them. They still have to deal with their loss to #19 USF though. Admittedly, an Oregon loss would hurt ASU, but if ASU, WVU, and Oregon all win out, I think the Sun Devils would be ahead of the Mountaineers in at least 4/6 of the computers and possibly 5/6.