Calculating LSU's Odds to win National Title

[iggymcfly]

You have one quick thing you have wrong on the Big 12 South. The only game that matters is Oklahoma/Oklahoma State. Here all possible outcomes:

OU and Texas win- Both are 6-2, OU wins H2H tiebreak.
OU wins, Texas loses- Oklahoma wins the division outright at 6-2
Texas wins, OU loses- Texas wins outright at 6-2
Texas loses, OU loses- Texas, Oklahoma, and OSU are all tied at 5-3. All are 1-1 against the group and all have 2 losses in the division. The next tiebreaker is record vs. the 4th place team in the division. Texas Tech has this locked up, so OSU and Texas beat out Oklahoma by virtue of their wins over Tech. At this point, Texas has the H2H tiebreak vs. OSU and wins the division.