286 billion Farm Aid Bill for 2008

[tolbiny]

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what i mean is that the bell curve of production would be centered at less than "enough" food, so that supply will sometimes exactly meet demand (right tail of curve), and the rest of the time the lesser supply will result in higher prices/profits. in other words there's no market incentive to center the bell curve of production to meet demand.

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This is wrong simply because there isn't just one farmer meeting the markets demand. If all farmers are under producing to create higher prices the very first guy to think "hey I can produce a little more, have a negliable effect on prices and make out like a bandit" wins the game (ie makes more money than the other farmers). Producers are in competition against each other, not in cahoots.