What would be the best limit to start at?

[tinkerman]

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Also, you need to figure out how many unknown cards there are. This is 52 - however many cards you have seen exposed so far. Don't go overboard trying to count these... on 6th st, if the hand was heads up from the beginning, there are 36 cards unknown. You know your 6, your opponents up 4, and 6 door cards from the people who folded 3rd. Obviously adjust downwards if lots of people saw 4th.

So, let's say you counted your outs, and there are 15 of them, and you've been heads up the whole way, so there are 36 cards left. That means you'll hit your draw 15/36 times. I'm going to cheat and call this 15/35 because that's almost the same anyway, and 15/35 is 3/7, which in odds speak is 3:4 (3 times you hit, 4 times you don't)


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I'd say as a quick rule of thumb that if you have remembered two other door cards then there are 33 cards left in the pack. This means that each out is around 3%. So in the above case 15 x 3 = 45% chance of hitting. If there are 40 unknown cards then each out is 2.5% so 15 x 2.5 = 37.5%

Of course this situation is usually an obvious play. Now assuming you had a draw to the wheel only with 4 outs. SO your chances of hitting are between 10 and 12%, eg. a 9/1