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Old 11-16-2007, 09:49 AM
JackStrap JackStrap is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 84
Default According to ICM: it\'s correct to fold AA on this bubble

According to ICM: it's correct to fold AA on this bubble

i ran into a weird situation and i want to know if my reasoning is correct


9 players SNG {.5,.3,.2}


4 players left, suppose everyone have the same stack 3375, blinds are 200/400 we are BB
Co go all-in, Button calls, SB calls we have AA.

My reasoning,

We fold and we are against 1 winners (forget about split pot)
Our stack 3375-BB=2900 ICM: .34
him 10125+BB=10525 ICM: .45

We Call and win they tourney

ICM = .50

We loose on the bubble

ICM = 0



So considering this, to make calling > folding we must have an equity superior than 68%

.34 =< eq*.50 where eq =< 68%

Well against all logical ranges it's impossible to get 68% against 3 players on this spot

so good fold?
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