I can only beat a bluff on the river - is it worth a call? $100 NL

[AllTheCheese]

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I also don't think many TAGs C/R the turn with the made flush and then bet the paired river because there isn't much value in it. If he does have the flush there aren't too many hands that can flat call his river bet that he beats - so I think a made flush is more likely to check-call the river to entice a bluff.


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This is wrong IMO. Once you call the turn, it looks like you checked back a Queen on the flop for PC/Value. Why would he ever want to give you a chance to check behind the river? Look, you're considering calling him with 77. Isn't that reason enough for him to value bet the river?

Also, basically, all you've considered so far was his postflop action. Let's think about the types of hands a 12/7 first-calls OOP preflop with. Pairs 22-TT. And argueably: AJ, AQ, KQ, maybe suited connectors Feel free to disagree. IMO, he has a lone Ace of spades here rarely.

Finally, let's look at the turn/river. He raised the turn and you called. What reason does he have for thinking you'll fold on the Queen river, which really could only have improved your hand, whatever it was?

I'm not saying this is a clear fold or a clear call. I'm just saying, it seems like you're convincing yourself that Villain can't have anything here.