Can this be folded

[groo]

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Folding is a super weak move hear, but having stopped and thought about it, I had to make sure I was following a good thought process.

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you didn't if it sounded anything like this.
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Moving from 4th to 1st or 2nd is much more profitable than 10th to 4th, and I'm going to have to be fortunate somewhere.

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This is a standard pf shove because you crush his range, the thought process here is pure math.

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Probably so, however, if you've ever played these MTT turbo's, then you know that at this point (and really through most of the game) people can raise with just about anything. From 15 minutes in, it's a series of end game problems since a vast majority of the remaining stacks are yellow zone, and at 20 minutes most are orange zone. IMO to make it worth playing this tourney, you have to play it on a regular basis to over come the higher than usual luck element.

Where I got momentarily lost is that the short term EV could (though not certainly) lie in folding this hand (a bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush) since you know you will make more by folding than by calling and losing. The long term EV is definately better with calling. Since I play this tourney regularly, I have to play for the long term EV and call.