Calculating LSU's Odds to win National Title

[Post-Oak]

Here's the analysis I did for the chances of the other main contenders to make it into the BCS title game.

Oregon has 3 games left:

@ Arizona -11.5 78.62%
@ UCLA (-11) (78.57%)
Oregon St -19.5 89.6%

Again, numbers in paranthesis are my own. All others are available lines. This gives them a 55.4% chance to run the table. As long as Kansas does not also run the table, this should assure them a spot in the BCS title game.

The line in the BCS game will of course depend on who they play, especially because the game is in New Orleans. This gives at least a small advantage to LSU, should they make it.

Kansas will make it into the BCS title game if they run the table and Oregon loses. They would probably leap frog Oregon even if Oregon does run the table.

Iowa St -26 (94.0%)
Missouri (-4.5) (63.0%)
Oklahoma - B12 Champ Game in San Antonio (PK) (50%)

This puts them at 29.6% to run the table. Again, this could have a direct effect on whether Oregon makes it or not, because KU could pass Oregon even if Oregon does not lose again.

Missouri will make it if they run the table, and Oregon loses.

@ Kansas State -7 70.3%
@ Kansas (+4.5) (37%)
Oklahoma - B12 Champ Game in San Antonio (+1.5) (47.0%)

This puts them at 12.2% to win those 3 games.


Oklahoma is in the same situation.

@ Texas Tech -7.5 71.9%
Oklahoma St -20 (90%)
Kansas/Missouri - B12 Champ Game in San Antonio (51.0%)

This would put them at 33% to run the table.