Fold a Set for Just a Bet? Twice?

[SNOWBALL]

check behind on river in the first hand. If he has something that will call you (2 pair or w/e), it would have CRed you on the turn. Against a random hand on that river, you have like less then 70% equity.
The bottom line is that you are not a favorite when called.

Hand 2 is really ugly. Limp it PF. turn is standard.
The river is interesting. There are 45+15 (can't count KTdd 2x)
hands that are a straight or flush that should be very solidly within most villains' PF bb defense range, and very solidly in their "call 2, then 2 more" on the turn range.

You are getting 19-1, so you need to come up with 1/20*60=3 combos of hands that you beat on the river. I think I know the answer. Wait for it...





































OH WAIT, here's where the analysis breaks down. You don't have a read, so you have to call and hope you get shown 2 pair, and that the other dude doesn't have 66 BECAUSE YOU ARE GETTING 19-1 AND THIS IS LIMIT [censored] HOLD EM.

"payoff with confidence"