50NL: AKs - How do I get to valuetown?

[Python49]

Well my original thoughts when looking at the hand was that I would just call the turn because I didn't think there was much value lost on the river regardless of what came if he had Q/set/two pair since I felt like this type of loose player would still stack off on a non diamond river with Qs/two pairs/sets and that by calling on the turn it gives you more value from his bluffs. The texture of this board though is actually a bit too high though for that because if a 3,6,8 comes... theres now 4 cards to a straight and alot of his range has to fold/give up. So the value lost from those scare cards hitting is bigger than the value gained from the % of the time he's bluffing on the turn and you allow him to bluff again on the river.

If this board were something like Q82 however with a 3 turn that made the flush i'd lean more towards calling because in that situation, a non diamond river I think he still stacks off with his sets/two pairs because theres not a 4 card straight out there now.

And in that situation, the questoin would be does the money we lose from a 4th diamond hitting on the river making him fold alot of his range, outweight the money we gain from him bluffing again on the river. And with this type of player with those stats, I think the value we gain from when he continues bluffing is more than what we lose from when it does hit and he folds because I still think this type of player calls sometimes with set/two pair when 4th diamond hits, or even might try to turn a hand like top pair Qs into a bluff.

Also theres a little bit of additional value that you actually get out of calling turn and non diamond hitting on river because he can also think you were drawing for the A high flush occasionally with the Ad or Kd and when it misses he might call you lighter on river with a hand like TT that he c/r'd turn to "find out where he was".

So on that type of board, his Qs/sets/two pairs still give similar to equal value on non diamond rivers and you allow him to bluff which I think this player does more frequently than others.

[ QUOTE ]
"You're not thinking this through completely. If a set calls a shove on the turn, he's making a mistake. If the board pairs and he gets it in on the river instead, he's not making a mistake. Even donks can get away from a set on a 4 diamond board. The idea is, you want his money to get in while you're ahead (obv) and you don't want to give him the opportunity to get away from his hand.
"

[/ QUOTE ]

What you're saying is true but that doesn't imply the other guy was incorrect. The idea that when the board pairs you lose anyway IS actually true like he said if you then begin to figure out how to get more value out of the rest of his range. For example if you assume that when he has a set/two pair he never folds and money goes in anyway, you can then start figuring out what might gain more value from the rest of his range. For example if you assume hsi range is just sets/two pair and the money gets all in on turn/river either way then that means the overall EV from when board pairs and he has two pair/set is the same... but if you now assume that by calling the turn you can gain more value from his bluffs, that would then make calling on the turn better.

The idea of just focusing on getting money in when you're ahead isn't always correct when it has adverse effects on the value you get from the rest of his range.