Representing an Ace vs probable AA or KK

[WoolyHat]

I've had two almost identical hands in tournaments recently like the one below. I believe Villian in this hand to be weak tightish.

Hand 1 Stars $10+R, 2nd hour, blinds 200/400 w/ 25 ante

Hero and villian are both stacked at about 20k

Preflop

Folded to Hero who open raises to 1400 in LP with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], folded to villian in SB who min-raises, BB folds, Hero calls.

Okay, generally you'll just have to trust my read here. But, I've twice seen villian call raises from the blinds with AK, and I've never seen them re-raise pf before. So I squarely put them on AA or KK (with a small possibility of QQ) after their preflop re-raise. I call preflop for set value.

Flop (Pot: 3200) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Villian leads for 1500, Hero raises to 6000...

Okay, so before villian acts on the flop I decide that 66% of the time (possibly more if you sometimes give them QQ) they hate that flop. 33% of the time they love it. I decide this is a good chance to run a bluff.

I do this is cash games when I have enough history on villian to be confident in my read. I rarely have that history in tournaments. So, firstly, specifically in this hand, do people think this is a +EV bluff (obviously I'm giving up if villian calls / raises)?

Also, if I have villian specifically on AA and KK and the flop comes A high, what % do you give to each of those hands when they

a) check the flop
b) lead for <1/2 pot on the flop
c) lead for around 1/2 pot on the flop
d) lead for full pot on the flop