Week 12 NCAA Early Lines Thread

[bills217]

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Can anyone explain why Arkansas is now favored by 10 against Miss. St? Croom and Co. have beat UK on the road (granted we played about the worst we possibly could have) and just beat Bama. Arkansas is an average team at best, despite having McFadden. I was thinking this line would be around Arkansas -3. What am I missing?

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Mississippi State is a 3.5 win team that's running absurdly hot. They caught UK at the best possible time, with the most possible injuries, and then UK pretty much took a dump. They ran hot at Auburn, and ran hot again this week with a 101-yd INT return at the half to turn a 2-possession deficit into a 1-point lead. They had a whopping 215 yards in victory this week. Their offense is still one of the worst in the country.

Just two weeks ago, Arkansas was favored by 6 against South Carolina (who was favored by 14ish over MSU) and dominated them. Is it really that surprising that they'd be favored by a scant four more against a vastly inferior MSU team? Who, like SC, is stronger against the pass than the run?

Also, I agree that UK +8 is tempting, but like you I'd like to hear more about Little first, and even then it would only be a unit or two for me - UK has just looked awful the past couple weeks and I'm hoping the wind isn't out of their sails after being eliminated from the East race. As a fan I am hoping this will be a bit of a sandwich game between Auburn and GT, but considering we beat them last year and this will be their Senior Day, I don't know how likely that is. I also expect Moreno to slice and dice us, although at least they don't have a running QB.