99 In blind steal situation

[elindauer]

Hi Kit,

Again, we need to think about our range on the river. In my last post about handling the 3-bet, I gave us a turn raising range of:

{55,88+,AT,KTs, QTs, JTs, T8s+,A8, J9s, 97d,76d,QJd,Q9d,AKd,AQd,AJd}

which has 67 made hands, and 11 draws.

If a diamond comes in... well, let's see what the range calculator says about our range on this 4d river...

There are 78 combinations in this range on this board.

quads: 1 combo (1.3%)
TT(1)

full house: 8 combos (10.3%)
T8(2) 88(3) 55(3)

flush: 8 combos (10.3%)
AK(1) AQ(1) AJ(1) QJ(1) Q9(1) J9(1) 97(1) 76(1)

trips: 16 combos (20.5%)
AT(8) KT(2) QT(2) JT(2) T9(2)

two pair: 42 combos (53.8%)
AA(6) A8(12) KK(6) QQ(6) JJ(6) 99(6)

one pair: 3 combos (3.8%)
o no hand: 3 combos (3.8%)
J9(3)

Villain is getting 7.5:1 to bluff, and if he has managed his range correctly (and by default we assume he has), he'll still hold combinations that have missed on a diamond river which he can bluff.

So we can fold the worst 13% of our range. Which hands are those?

It's not as easy as just going to the bottom 13%, because we have to remember that we'll be bluff-raising some hands here. Let's figure out what those are:

Let's say we are value raising quads(1), fullhouses(8), and flushes(8). Villain will be getting 8.5:1 to call this raise, so he is indifferent if we are bluff-raising 2 combos as well. So we are bluff-raising our missed J9s hands except for, say, Jh9h.

ok, NOW we can look for the bottom 13% to fold. 13% of 78 = 10 combinations. A8, with 12 combos, is our weakest made hand, so we fold it 5 times out of 6, call everything else.

So... crying call the 99 facing a river donk on this board by default. Folding 99 (and the other 2 A8 combos) would take us to folding 23% of our river range. Exploitable, yes, but perhaps reasonable if we had a read that opponent was passive. Let's check the read...

"Villain is laggy... perhaps FPS... could be on tilt..."

No, this is not a good player to make exploitable folds. If anything, you would adjust to this read by calling the A8 as well and hoping for a busted straight draw. You could even bluff-raise the final missed J9 combo in an effort to take advantage of his range being draw / bluff heavy.

In fact, I think that would be a very reasonable move against this player.


Conclussion: call a river donk with 99.


good luck.
Eric