200nl: I don't cbet TP in pos, leads to 2 bets from villain.

[AllTheCheese]

Okay, everyone's saying how much simpler raising makes the decision process but is that really true? I think the decision process is made easy by playing a small pot in position with one pair. Our line looks somewhat weak, there were draws on the flop and we checked behind after a preflop raise. What if Villain decides we're fos (which we are)and comes over the top of our turn raise with a combo draw? Are we gonna call his shove? Is that an easy decision? What about if he just calls our raise and leads out on the river? Is that an easy decision?

To a better hand, we lose the ~same amount of money by raising turn as we would by flatting two streets. To an air hand, weak draw, or a King, which probably make up at least 40% of his range here, we lose value. To a draw, either play can be argued depending on how much he bluffs river (which, as you said, neither of us knows). Poker isn't about "protecting" hands, "finding out where you're at", or even making easy decisions. It's about winning the maximum* amount of money on every hand. I agree that raising should be considered and I'm not trying to insult you for thinking about it or even advocating it. I'm just saying, I considered it, and I think it costs us money.

*winning max encompasses losing min when we're beat.