$50 check my FE

[bozzer]

Right i just solved this to get the general solution, but i'm not sure it's right.

assumption 1: he calls a 3flush river with the same frequency that he calls my shove on the turn. (not true but massively simplifying)

assumption 2: i can't win the hand unless i hit a flush.

assumption 3: i never bluff the river if i miss (not true lol).

if someone could check this i'd be very happy..

x = calling frequency

EV of checking = [0.2((x*$10)+$15)] = 2x + 3

EV of shoving = x[(0.2*$35)-$10] + (1-x)*$15 = -3x + 15 - 15x
EV of shoving = 5 - 6x


grapically:




this suggests that shoving and checking have equal value at a calling frequency of 25% - if he calls more than that and checking has more value.

the thing that concerns me is that shoving is profitable until he calls 85% of the time. if someone could check this using whatever method they normally use to check FE that would be really awesome.