*** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***

[TooTallT]

You need to look at big books that have lots of sharp and square players to really know what the market looks like. Just because one book moves from Det +1.5 to PK doesn't mean the whole market is behaving that way. Put it this way, if 94% are on Detroit, why don't you think your book has moved this to Det -3? Shouldn't they be dying for Arizona bets now? They haven't, and they aren't, because they're either getting the 6% are making huge Arizona bets or they are comfortable holding a big Zona position.

Pinnacle is usually a fairly good barometer of the entire market, even though they don't accept US customers anymore. Comparing Pinny, WSEX, and Bookmaker/CRIS probably give a good representation of market movements. Pinny's an extremely successful book and yet always deals -105 or better lines. That's not by accident. That's why many people pay attention to the "Pinny lean." It's not foolproof obviously, but it's one good indicator among many.