NL50 Blank hits turn, opponent wakes up and confuses the hero

[smokingrobot]

I know this is against the rules, but i think its good for discussion: Because this guy played this hand so ridiculously different than the previous hands he's been in, i practically called. But I let my better judgment come over me because I knew i'd be ashamed to admit I called something like this to anyone on the board.

The long and short is: I folded, villain was nice enough to show me his KJo air.

I told him it was awesome bluff.

But my point is: If we can spot situations to call down an opponent, such as check calling to the river and when a blank hits, nitty guy suddenly bets something like 1/4 or less of the pot, we're most likely calling, right? The river donk bet: obvious call at least most of the time.

(we're in a vacuum and the river could not possible make villain a hand that would beat ours)

Also, nits are capable of bluffing. I think TV poker has taught them that "spotting tells" and bluffing are the most important aspects of the game.

I used up pretty much all my time bank deliberating this situation.

I've been continually pushing people around at this table and I've shown down winning hands greater than 65% of the time. (im saying this to give a better idea of the table image)

I've seen this guy call raises preflop and continually fold on the flop, and then suddenly on the turn decides to bet into me. yes, there's now a 2,3,5 making a possible A4 holding seem likely. Then when another spade hits he goes all in.

I know he's not thinking about pot odds, but he obviously doesnt know that I know he's not thinking about pot odds, and calling the preflop bet to draw to a flush isnt what he's representing.

Even a bluff has to make sense. This one didnt make sense to me. My gut said it didnt make sense, but I made the "proper" laydown. Would i lay those cards down in the same situation with that guy again? Yeah, probably. What information would i be looking at to make the best read on the villain and deduce this as a bluff?

The only things i can think of are his line didnt make sense. Is he capable of a bluff? THen perhaps he's the only 60% VPIP/.7 who is.