500th post thesis - the cost of marginal preflop decisions

[rzk]

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can we agree that the tighter the range, the less marginal hands? That is, there are more hands I'm uncertain about for the button than for utg.

So if somebody has open-raised and it's to me otb, I think there will be considerably fewer marginal hands than if it had been folded to me otb.

Anyway, I agree that overall the effect of smaller sample sizes per situation will outweight the effect of smaller ranges per situation.

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i definitely agree that if somebody open-raises utg you have fewer marginal spots than if everybody folds to you, because there are no marginal Qxo and Jxo type hands anymore, whereas if everybody folded there would even be marginal Txo,9xo, and 8xo otb. basically, in step 2 i made a rough estimate for the number of marginal spots by assuming that on average there are 4 unsuited marginal hands per position: Axo - Jxo. but it's true, sometimes there are less and sometimes there are more, so a more careful counting is needed to get a better estimate.