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Old 11-05-2007, 05:47 PM
TomCollins TomCollins is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Approving of Iron\'s Moderation
Posts: 7,517
Default Re: Week 10 Rank\'em

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Don't worry, Kansas won't be winning out. Just go ahead and assume they have one loss even if it comes in the title game.

@Oklahoma St. - They beat Texas, they could beat KU.
Missouri - Has a good shot at beating KU.
Title game...

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Uh... no they didn't. In any case, I give Kansas about a 10% chance of going undefeated.

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10% is pretty close, probably a tad low.

70% to beat OSU
100% to beat ISU
50% to beat MU

That's 35% to be undefeated going into the game against OU. I would think at that point they're better than 28% against OU on a neutral field.

But 10% is pretty close.

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100% to beat ISU? The team that just beat KSU and almost beat Oklahoma? 90% is more likely. You will be about 17 point favorites in that game according to Sagarin.

You are only 5 point favorites @ Okie State- probably closer to 60 or 65% there. I haven't seen the money lines, so check there.

50% to beat MU is probably about right. That would mean you need 37% or better to beat Oklahoma to reach 10%.

I think its pretty close to 8-10%.
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