My river play bothers me

OrigamiSensei · #1 11-05-2007, 11:29 AM

I generally consider my river play to be a very weak part of my game. When to make a value bet vs. check-calling especially seems to be a situation that eludes me.

Ultimate Bet 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) Ultimate Bet Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: OrigamiSensei is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
4 folds, MP2 raises, 3 folds, OrigamiSensei calls, Villain calls in the BB.
MP2 is rockish, a 12/6 type which means his raise is probably not a steal - hence the simple call to defend as opposed to the instant 3-bet that would occur with many other players. Villain is a classic LP-P at 36/3/.8. I don't have a ton of hands on either but enough to believe the reads are pretty solid.

Flop: (6 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
OrigamiSensei checks, Villain bets, MP2 calls, OrigamiSensei raises, Villain calls, MP2 folds.
Good flop for me. There is a question in my mind whether leading here would be better than lying doggo and going for the check-raise and I wouldn't mind some discussion on that subject.

Turn: (5.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
OrigamiSensei bets, Villain calls.
Obvious. A turn raise stop and go by villain will cause me to reconsider but for now I stay aggressive.

River: (7.50 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
OrigamiSensei???

Here's where I have a problem. Naturally I believe I have my opponent outkicked or he was calling down with some middle pair plus a possible straight draw but now the board is very dangerous. I beat AJ/AT/A9/A2 while I lose to A8/A7/A6/A5/A4/A3.

So is check-call the ticket here?