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25NL, maximizing value with top set
Villain is 17/7/3, but only over ~30 hands. I am playing at 16/11/2.
UTG ($12 in chips) UTG+1 ($33.15 in chips) UTG+2 ($4.95 in chips) MP1 ($5.95 in chips) MP2 ($26.85 in chips) CO ($10.60 in chips) BU ($16.65 in chips) Hero ($23.30 in chips) BB ($34.30 in chips) Hero is SB with Ah Ad Four folds, MP2 raises $0.75 to $1, two folds, Hero raises $2 to $3, one fold, MP2 calls $2 Flop ($6.25) Ac 4s 8s Hero??? I understand that there are two spades on the board, but I’m really trying to see fewer monsters under the bed when I’m HU, so I want to focus on maximizing value here. My thinking is: Assuming he’s been paying attention, he has to put me on JJ+/AK, so he is probably on QQ+/AK given his stats. Also assuming he’s been paying attention, he has to know that I lead here ~95% of the time with any hand I raised pre-flop, including JJ-KK. So, do I lead here and hope he calls with AK? Or check and count on his aggressiveness? I’m worried that given how I play, a check here practically announces that I have AA. |
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