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#11
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I shove... the solid player will still raise you with KJ and AJ here and fold to a reraise. And against the donk you're happy to get it in.
If it weren't for the donk in the hand a call would be okay, imo. But here you're commiting a substantial amount of your chips and you're very likely to be in the same situation on the turn as you are on the flop, forced to make a tough call. He DOES NOT have KK or AA here, since he just cold-called pre-flop. I think the same goes for JJ. Cold-calling these hands seems highly unlikely for a 17/15/3 decent regular. So I end up giving him 99-TT, AJ, KJ, J9, QJ, J9, T9 and you're 58%. Add to that your fold-equity against top-pair hands and you're good enough to shove. Especially with the donk in the hand, liable to call a lot if decent villain folds. Player 1: 57.962 % 55.106 % 5.712 % 39.182 % QsQh Player 2: 42.038 % 39.182 % 5.712 % 55.106 % 99-TT, AJs, KJs+, QJs, J9s, T9s, AJo, KJo+, QJo, J9o, T9o |
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