Daliman's Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8

[LogistX]

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Dali, another question. For examples I will use Denver and San Diego. For a substantial length of time this week San Diego was -7.5 and Denver was +2.5, which are wongs.

However, they have currently been pushed to -7 and +3, respectively.

Can one tease the games to -1 and +9 or are the lines now moving to their "true" value so they were never wongs to begin with? If you had teased them at their earlier lines would this movement suggest you actually made an -EV bet?

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Except in very rare cases, I would not bother teasing these games anymore. Let's take the SD game as an example:
if you believe that the "true" line on the SD game is -7, then it is not a wong.
if you believe that the "true" line on the SD game is -7.5, then if you can get -7, betting straight already has value.

According to SSB, I believe the break even point for a half point on the 7 is 15 cents. So this bet would already be +EV if it was accurately handicapped to -7.5. I'm not sure how that would compare with a teaser, but I would suspect betting straight is better or comparable since you aren't getting that 15c in the teaser anymore.