The Long Term - will you ever get in enough live hands?

[gobbledygeek]

[not a bad beat whine]

So the other week I'm in a gigantic pot (7 ways capped+1 to the flop due to straddles, etc., blah blah blah) and my best hand on the turn is two-outted on the river (OP actually had odds to stay in hand due to incredible size of pot). No big deal, happens, on to next hand. So last night, similar thing happens. Again, no big deal, I'm not too concerned about it, I'll win my fair share of those big pots IN THE LONG RUN.

But then I began thinking about the first two outter pot. The pot was one of the biggest I've played in, it's not the type of pot the comes around all that often; I'm involved in a pot like that maybe only once or twice a month live, if that, let alone leading big time on the turn. So sure, 22 times my hand will hold up to every 1 time it doesn't so IN THE LONG RUN I kill. But am I ever going to see enough of those kind of hands (i.e. huge pots, leading hand on turn with great odds of holding up) in my live lifetime play to outrun the variance? I mean, I'm guessing I'd have to be involved in at least a few hundred of those particular hands (maybe a few thousand?) in order for the numbers to start converging to 22:1; am I really going to encounter that many situations in my lifetime of play?

I guess that basic question I have is this: Do you really think you'll be able to play enough lifetime live hands in order to make up for short term variance? Sounds stupid, but is one man's lifetime live hands ever going to be a large enough sample size?

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