High Stakes Poker thread (10/29 - spoilers possible)

[Shanemex]

That insurance deal at the end was a mess. Phil came up with about the right odds of 4.5-1, but did so in a totally incorrect way. The way he phrased it made it sound like he was not taking splits into account, because he said 36 to 8 (actually 37-7), which are the odds he will win or split the pot. It seems like Brandon could have made Phil pay out the 12k, because their agreement did not say anything about what happens in a chop.

The real math is 44 unseen cards, 31 win for phil, 7 for eli, 6 chop. So really the odds are 31-7 instead of 36-8, which is still about 4.5-1. So if they ran the river 44 times, phil would pay $372k, and collect $336k. So he paid about $947 in ev, not counting the splits, for the insurance.