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Old 10-29-2007, 07:20 PM
Poker Clif Poker Clif is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Three Rivers, Michigan, USA
Posts: 286
Default Best possible drawing hands

I've been thinking about pot odds and drawing hands (yes, I most definitely need to get a life). I don't remember ever reading what the best possible drawing hand in hold 'em would be, or put another way, what the largest possible number of outs would be at the turn or river.

I decided it would be useful to try to figure it out myself, rather than look for a chart or table. I would appreciate comments on either the correctness of either my answer, or the logic I used to get there.

The logical part: I came up with the following assumptions:

1. I should flop a straight flush draw with two overcards as a starting point.

2. I don't want to have an ace, since I could then only make the straight in one direction.

3. Since I don't have an ace, I don't want a scenario where an ace on the turn or river hurts me.

This is what I came up with:

My hole cards: Ks Qs
The flop: Jh Js Ts

So, my outs are:

Any spade, which makes a flush (9 outs)
And non-spade A or 9 makes a straight (6)
Any remaining K or Q makes top pair (6)

With 21 outs, I am less than 50% to hit on either street.

The moral of this story seems to be that a made hand is ALWAYS better than a drawing hand, since the best possible chance to hit a drawing hand is never 50% on any street, and in fact, in my scenario some of my outs could lead to a split pot.

Also a jack could make trips and a split pot, but since I'm only holding K-high at this point, a split pot would be worth some fraction of an out.
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