#8
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Re: Nl600: AQs
Thought this was a difficult spot, so I decided to run the numbers on this one and got some interesting results.
Pot Size after villain bets: 333 + 78 = 411 Left to Shove: 433.8 - 105 = 328.8 (effective stacks of 433.8) Final Pot Size if Villain Calls: 333 + 328.8*2 = 990.6 Equity when called*: *The range will vary a lot on the donk, but in general we will always have around 35% equity with the overcards, bdfd, and gutshot. Board: 2c 5d 3h Dead: Hand 0: 35.842% { AdQd } Hand 1: 64.158% { AcAs, AdAs, KcKs, KdKs, JJ-77, 55, 65s } Let X = probability villain folds. EV of Shove is neutral when: 0 = 411(X) + (1-X)(990.6*0.35 - 328.8) X = -5%. So villain never has to fold for this to be +EV! A couple more numbers: X = 0%, EV = 17.91 X = 10%, EV = 57.22 X = 20%, EV = 96.53 So, not a terrible play at all. Nice hand hero! |
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