NL400: AJs, deep OOP

[mythrilfox]

why is everyone going bananas over turn c/ring all of a sudden? i think it sucks. he either has a weaker draw/random bluff you want to keep in there or aces up/set that is not folding. once youve checked calling seems like the obvious play... i am wondering about leading though.

as for leading hands like this, i like to feel i'm being protected somewhat by the other hands in my range. so when we lead a hand like this, which really can't stand that much pressure, i'd like to have some protection from stronger hands in my range, namely a4 a8 aq AA as well. now aq/AA probably reraise preflop a fairly high % of the time, and does it seem logical for us to c/r a4 or a8 here? I don't c/r that often in general but i'd expect c/c here to be the standard play for both of those, maybe c/r A8 some of the time and A4 some small % of the time. but I'd think these go ckca more often than not, so our range on leading the turn that can stand raises is really tight here, really. it includes largely 44/88/sometimes A8. now the nifty thing is if he's gone through this precise line of thinking we can bet-call the turn knowing he perceives us to rarely have a big hand here. in other words, given our tight range of "feltable" hands we need to add in more things that become feltable - tp/NFD seems like a good hand to do that. it's also a decent board for him to make a big move, he is going to be thinking aces up is a great hand for him to represent, so he might raise with gutshot+flushdraw, flushdraw+pair or something. also, I think he would generally expect you to ck/ca the nut flush draw on the turn, which works well in your favor if he just flatcalls a draw.

also he might think we could lead a ton of gutshots+flush draws which can't stand a big raise.

basically what i'm concluding is that we need to bet-call this turn here, at Least some decent (>50% perhaps) of the time. i might even bet kinda small to try and a) induce a bluff or b) get him to draw to a weaker hand. thinking he's got odds. like 1/2 pot sounds good. he could even turn 99-JJ into a bluff.

also if he happens to be a chronic floater i like ck/calling the turn a lot more than betting it. that will let him off too easy, and he is betting that ace 100% of the time if he's on KJ/9T/JT.