86s OTB on wet board

[You're No Daisy]

Let's work out the numbers. We are 4.5:1 to make our draw right. If he folds 25% of the time we get $16 and calls the other 75%. In 100 identical situations let's say villain folds 25 times to a 3-bet of $25. The other 75 times villain calls our 3-bet we will make our draw 13 times (and lose 62 times. So I believe the math would look like (25 x $16)+(13 x $58)-(62 x $25) = -396. So if my numbers are correct a fold might be in order. However, when do implied odds factor into the situation? If we make our hand, shouldn't we factor in bets we potentially win on the river which make our expectation even greater? Just something to think about. Please correct my math if it is wrong. I don't attempt too many of these calculations, so take it easy if I'm way off.

AC