World Population Growth

[Boris]

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Proof pls.


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According to the world bank, GNI per capita in high income countries was up 42% in real terms from 2000-2006 vs 70% per capita in low income countries. In the 3 most populous countries in the world other than the US (all poor countries in 2000), GNI per capita has grown 116% (China), 82% (India) and 141% (Indonesia). That's 2.6 billion poor people doubling up in 6 years. Even the 800 million people in sub-Saharan Africa have grown GNI at 70+% per capita over that time.

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When you start off with really small numbers it's easy to have astounding growth rates. To use these astounding growth rates as proof that poor countries are becoming rich countries is to commit the same error as population doomsdayers in the '70s and '80s. That is: assuming that recently observed trends will continue far into the future. The recent past can be a great predictor of the near future. Beyond that is anyone's guess. The fact is that these astounding growth trends inevitably run in to constraints.