$5/$10 Set River Decision (Hand reading related)

[NYWalker]

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NYwalker,
As for the actual hand. One thing I see in nearly every thread you start is Link . I do not mean this as an insult but you are always so certain and manage to narrow down someones hand range into such a tiny portion that almost always seems to be right. So either your playing the most predictable players ever, you are the best hand reader in the world, or you have a confirmation bias.

On to the actual hand.

PF standard

Flop This is a very dry board so raising and calling are both fine. The thing is you want to play for stacks here for sure. You basically have the nuts and tons of worse hands will stack off. In this spot I would either call or but in a raise big enough that I could get bet the turn and then shove the river.

Turn Once you minraise and he calls the pot is roughly 550
and you have 1750 behind. You have a very strong hand and want to get it in. The described villain seems very bad and will call down with a wide range. Now if you raised a little bigger on the flop to 250 or 300 you could bet turn and bet river and get all in. But since you made such a small raise to get all in you need to do one of three things.
1. Bet almost full pot on the turn and shove river
2. Bet smaller on the turn like 300-400 and then overbet shove river or full pot river.
3. Induce a stupid bluff which wont happen as often as you would like to think.

River
Once you get here checking behind is the absolute worse decision you can make. You have the best hand like 95% of the time its a clear bet. Given your bet sizing on previous streets your stuck in a pretty tricky spot. I'd either bet around 800 and hope he calls with whatever stupid hand he has or try and induce a bluff by betting small which honestly is a perfectly reasonable line.

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Eagles,

Thank you for the analysis.

I agree with you in most things you said about this hand, except, I'm not sure if he can call a turn bet $500 after we raise the flop to $300. So, basically, IMO, our choice is (after he put in $100 on the flop) we extract one chunk ($200 more) vs two chunks ($100+$300 more). Our second option may improves his hand on the turn, keep him going to the river. I think my option gets paid by wider ranges, but sometimes don't get full value from specific hands.

When posting this hand, I was really hoping someone can point out villain's range and how much is the limit on each street (combined with all streets) we can extract - when people call the flop for draw or second pp/tpnk, they normally think about how much cost them at the turn... most important, the river bet amount. (river check behind is standard live with a scared card hits IMO)

As for river bet, I think $650 (close half of my remaining stk) at the river is a bad choice which basically tells villain "I have you and I'm not folding to a push". But, for those just criticize the flop without explanation, to me, they only have a *simple, isolated* flop decision, they don't have plan for each street and don't think what hands can stay, what hands will fold... You are the first one give so detailed analysis. thanks


(I apologize for my previous post, because I didn't see this one when replying to you. Hope we can meet live and I'm sure you are a nice guy. Good luck to you online and live!)